La Liga. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
La Liga · next 10
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 23 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 37 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 26 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 79 percent
Market probability, home win: 75 percent
Our probability, draw: 15 percent
Market probability, draw: 16 percent
Our probability, away win: 7 percent
Market probability, away win: 9 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 57 percent
Market probability, home win: 55 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 15 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent La Liga results
- Oct 19Getafe v Rayo Vallecano1-1
- Oct 18Real Madrid v Sevilla4-1
- Oct 18Málaga v Real Sociedad2-5
- Oct 18Celta Vigo v Deportivo Alavés2-1
- Oct 18Osasuna v Racing de Santander1-0
- Oct 17Valencia v Athletic Club0-0
- Oct 17Real Betis v Barcelona2-5
- Oct 17Villarreal v Elche0-0
- Oct 17Espanyol v Atletico Madrid0-1
- Oct 16Deportivo La Coruña v Levante UD1-1
- Oct 12Levante UD v Sevilla3-3
- Oct 11Racing de Santander v Valencia2-2
- Oct 11Real Betis v Osasuna5-2
- Oct 11Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña3-2
- Oct 11Elche v Celta Vigo0-0
- Oct 10Real Madrid v Villarreal1-0
- Oct 10Barcelona v Getafe3-0
- Oct 10Deportivo Alavés v Atletico Madrid1-2
- Oct 9Málaga v Espanyol1-1
- Sep 20Valencia v Real Sociedad2-3
- Sep 20Villarreal v Levante UD3-1
- Sep 20Deportivo La Coruña v Real Betis1-1
- Sep 20Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid2-1
- Sep 20Getafe v Málaga1-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
10
Spots
0
Graded here
88
last 90 days
Called right
53%
of 88
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in La Liga
Favourite won
53%
Drawn
25%
Underdog won
21%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 346 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | +30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 |
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