Premier League. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Premier League · next 10
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 28 percent
Market probability, home win: 31 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 44 percent
Market probability, away win: 42 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 22 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 59 percent
Market probability, away win: 55 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 11 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 57 percent
Market probability, home win: 55 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 41 percent
Market probability, away win: 40 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 17 percent
Market probability, home win: 22 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 58 percent
Market probability, away win: 54 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Premier League results
- Oct 19Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City3-1
- Oct 18Nottingham Forest v Arsenal0-1
- Oct 18Bournemouth v Sunderland2-0
- Oct 18Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace5-0
- Oct 18Leeds United v Manchester United1-1
- Oct 17Newcastle United v Aston Villa0-1
- Oct 17Manchester City v Ipswich Town3-2
- Oct 17Fulham v Hull City1-0
- Oct 17Brentford v Liverpool1-2
- Oct 17Everton v Chelsea0-2
- Oct 12Coventry City v Newcastle United4-1
- Oct 11Liverpool v Manchester City0-3
- Oct 11Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest3-1
- Oct 11Hull City v Everton2-2
- Oct 10Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur1-1
- Oct 10Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion0-2
- Oct 10Ipswich Town v Fulham2-1
- Oct 10Chelsea v Bournemouth5-1
- Oct 10Aston Villa v Brentford2-2
- Oct 10Arsenal v Leeds United2-1
- Sep 20Fulham v Manchester United1-1
- Sep 20Manchester City v Sunderland5-3
- Sep 20Leeds United v Crystal Palace0-0
- Sep 20Bournemouth v Liverpool0-1
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
10
Spots
0
Graded here
70
last 90 days
Called right
44%
of 70
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Premier League
Favourite won
49%
Drawn
30%
Underdog won
22%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 338 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
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