USL Championship. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
USL Championship · next 14
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 11 percent
Market probability, home win: 15 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 73 percent
Market probability, away win: 67 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 57 percent
Market probability, home win: 55 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 61 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 17 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 53 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 84 percent
Market probability, home win: 79 percent
Our probability, draw: 11 percent
Market probability, draw: 14 percent
Our probability, away win: 5 percent
Market probability, away win: 7 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 62 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 17 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Sacramento Republic FC v Oakland Roots SC
Likeliest: Sacramento Republic FC win · 64%
02:00spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 16 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent USL Championship results
- Oct 18Birmingham Legion FC v Loudoun United FC0-0
- Oct 18Las Vegas Lights v Lexington SC3-5
- Oct 18Orange County SC v Phoenix Rising FC1-3
- Oct 18Monterey Bay FC v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC0-1
- Oct 18El Paso Locomotive FC v Sacramento Republic FC0-1
- Oct 18San Antonio FC v New Mexico United1-0
- Oct 18FC Tulsa v Oakland Roots SC2-4
- Oct 17Rhode Island FC v Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-1
- Oct 17FC Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City FC1-0
- Oct 17Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn FC2-3
- Oct 17Miami FC v Charleston Battery1-2
- Oct 17Louisville City FC v Indy Eleven4-1
- Oct 14Rhode Island FC v Loudoun United FC1-0
- Oct 14SC Jacksonville v Birmingham Legion FC0-1
- Oct 14Hartford Athletic v Charleston Battery1-1
- Oct 11Oakland Roots SC v San Antonio FC0-0
- Oct 11Phoenix Rising FC v Las Vegas Lights3-2
- Oct 11Sacramento Republic FC v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC1-1
- Oct 11El Paso Locomotive FC v Orange County SC2-1
- Oct 11New Mexico United v Monterey Bay FC3-1
- Oct 10Detroit City FC v Rhode Island FC1-0
- Oct 10Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic2-1
- Oct 10Miami FC v Loudoun United FC0-2
- Oct 10Indy Eleven v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies1-3
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
14
Spots
4
Graded here
119
last 90 days
Called right
47%
of 119
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in USL Championship
Favourite won
46%
Drawn
32%
Underdog won
22%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 117 matches we priced.
Table · 2026
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lexington SC | 19 | +21 | 38 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 20 | +21 | 37 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 20 | +11 | 36 |
| 4 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 20 | +7 | 36 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic FC | 20 | +10 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Tampa Bay Rowdies | 19 | +12 | 34 |
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