Major League Soccer. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Major League Soccer · next 16
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 54 percent
Market probability, home win: 53 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 15 percent
Market probability, home win: 20 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 63 percent
Market probability, away win: 59 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 26 percent
Market probability, home win: 29 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 54 percent
Market probability, away win: 50 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 38 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 65 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 45 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 29 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 41 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 56 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: 31 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 63 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 18 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Major League Soccer results
- Oct 18FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew0-2
- Oct 18San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC1-1
- Oct 18LA Galaxy v San Diego FC2-2
- Oct 18Seattle Sounders FC v CF Montréal1-1
- Oct 18Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids0-0
- Oct 18Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake1-3
- Oct 18Austin FC v Vancouver Whitecaps1-2
- Oct 18Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas2-2
- Oct 17New England Revolution v Chicago Fire1-0
- Oct 17New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC0-2
- Oct 17New York City FC v Los Angeles FC1-1
- Oct 17Atlanta United v Inter Miami CF1-3
- Oct 17Orlando City SC v DC United4-1
- Oct 17Minnesota United v St.Louis City3-2
- Oct 17Philadelphia Union v Charlotte FC2-2
- Oct 15LA Galaxy v Portland Timbers2-0
- Oct 15Los Angeles FC v Austin FC3-1
- Oct 15San Diego FC v Houston Dynamo3-3
- Oct 15Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes1-1
- Oct 15Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United2-2
- Oct 15Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union1-3
- Oct 15FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC1-0
- Oct 15St.Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps0-0
- Oct 15Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City4-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
16
Spots
1
Graded here
201
last 90 days
Called right
44%
of 201
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Major League Soccer
Favourite won
48%
Drawn
26%
Underdog won
26%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 427 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | +25 | 39 |
| 2 | St.Louis City | 16 | +19 | 35 |
| 3 | Nashville SC | 16 | +21 | 34 |
| 4 | Orlando City SC | 15 | +9 | 27 |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 15 | +7 | 26 |
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