Primera Nacional. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.
Primera Nacional · next 16
1
X
2
Price
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 35 percent
Market probability, draw: 33 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 82 percent
Market probability, home win: 78 percent
Our probability, draw: 13 percent
Market probability, draw: 15 percent
Our probability, away win: 5 percent
Market probability, away win: 7 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 48 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 50 percent
Market probability, away win: 48 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 52 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 66 percent
Market probability, home win: 64 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 12 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 55 percent
Market probability, home win: 53 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 37 percent
Market probability, draw: 33 percent
Our probability, away win: 34 percent
Market probability, away win: 34 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 36 percent
Our probability, draw: 37 percent
Market probability, draw: 33 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 33 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 52 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 56 percent
Market probability, home win: 55 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 57 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 15 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 38 percent
Market probability, draw: 35 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.
Recent Primera Nacional results
- Oct 18Deportivo Morón v Mitre0-2
- Oct 17Tristán Suárez v Patronato1-0
- Oct 17Nueva Chicago v Gimnasia Jujuy0-1
- Oct 17Club Ferro Carril Oeste v Racing de Córdoba1-0
- Oct 17San Martín de San Juan v Temperley1-1
- Oct 17San Martín de Tucumán v Ferrocarril Midland3-2
- Oct 17San Miguel v Ciudad de Bolivar1-2
- Oct 17Agropecuario Argentino v Colegiales0-0
- Oct 17Acassuso v Deportivo Madryn0-0
- Oct 17Güemes v Almagro2-1
- Oct 17Atlético de Rafaela v Quilmes Atlético Club1-0
- Oct 17Club Atletico Colón v Almirante Brown2-2
- Oct 17Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta v Atlanta3-1
- Oct 17Godoy Cruz v Estudiantes de Buenos Aires6-3
- Oct 17Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors v Deportivo Maipú1-0
- Oct 17Chaco For Ever v Central Norte de Salta1-2
- Oct 11Temperley v Nueva Chicago2-1
- Oct 11Estudiantes de Buenos Aires v Deportivo Morón2-0
- Oct 10Deportivo Madryn v Chaco For Ever1-2
- Oct 10Central Norte de Salta v Club Ferro Carril Oeste1-1
- Oct 10Almirante Brown v San Miguel1-1
- Oct 10Patronato v Güemes2-0
- Oct 10Quilmes Atlético Club v Agropecuario Argentino0-1
- Oct 10Atlanta v San Martín de Tucumán1-0
Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.
Fixtures priced
16
Spots
2
Graded here
77
last 90 days
Called right
42%
of 77
“Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →
How the favourite fares in Primera Nacional
Favourite won
44%
Drawn
24%
Underdog won
32%
The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 66 matches we priced.
Table · 2026/27
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Godoy Cruz | 15 | +14 | 35 |
| 2 | Temperley | 14 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 | Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta | 15 | +8 | 28 |
| 4 | Tristán Suárez | 14 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 | Deportivo Madryn | 14 | +12 | 25 |
| 6 | Colegiales | 15 | +2 | 25 |
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