J-League. The honest number.

    Our probability next to the bookmakers', with their margin removed. Purple is where we differ by four points or more.

    Table →

    J-League · next 20

    1
    X
    2
    Price
    Yokohama F. Marinos v Tokyo Verdy
    Likeliest: Yokohama F. Marinos win · 48%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 48 percent
    Market probability, home win: 48 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 28 percent
    Our probability, away win: 23 percent
    Market probability, away win: 24 percent
    —
    FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol
    Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 38%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 38 percent
    Market probability, home win: 40 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 33 percent
    Market probability, away win: 33 percent
    —
    Shimizu S-Pulse v Machida Zelvia
    Likeliest: Machida Zelvia win · 47%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 22 percent
    Market probability, home win: 26 percent
    Our probability, draw: 31 percent
    Market probability, draw: 29 percent
    Our probability, away win: 47 percent
    Market probability, away win: 45 percent
    —
    Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka
    Likeliest: Cerezo Osaka win · 41%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 32 percent
    Market probability, home win: 35 percent
    Our probability, draw: 28 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 41 percent
    Market probability, away win: 39 percent
    —
    Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka
    Likeliest: Avispa Fukuoka win · 38%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 38 percent
    Market probability, home win: 40 percent
    Our probability, draw: 31 percent
    Market probability, draw: 29 percent
    Our probability, away win: 31 percent
    Market probability, away win: 31 percent
    —
    V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 71%
    10:00spot · under 2.5
    Our probability, home win: 9 percent
    Market probability, home win: 14 percent
    Our probability, draw: 20 percent
    Market probability, draw: 20 percent
    Our probability, away win: 71 percent
    Market probability, away win: 66 percent
    —
    Kyoto Sanga FC v Kashima Antlers
    Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 53%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 20 percent
    Market probability, home win: 24 percent
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: 26 percent
    Our probability, away win: 53 percent
    Market probability, away win: 50 percent
    —
    Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe
    Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 37%
    10:00spot · under 2.5
    Our probability, home win: 34 percent
    Market probability, home win: 37 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 37 percent
    Market probability, away win: 36 percent
    —
    Fagiano Okayama v Mito Hollyhock
    Likeliest: Fagiano Okayama win · 49%
    10:00
    Our probability, home win: 49 percent
    Market probability, home win: 49 percent
    Our probability, draw: 29 percent
    Market probability, draw: 27 percent
    Our probability, away win: 23 percent
    Market probability, away win: 24 percent
    —
    Urawa Red Diamonds v JEF United Chiba
    Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 58%
    10:30
    Our probability, home win: 58 percent
    Market probability, home win: 56 percent
    Our probability, draw: 23 percent
    Market probability, draw: 24 percent
    Our probability, away win: 18 percent
    Market probability, away win: 20 percent
    —
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse
    Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 63%
    05:00
    Our probability, home win: 63 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 23 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 14 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia
    Likeliest: Machida Zelvia win · 37%
    06:00
    Our probability, home win: 34 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 30 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 37 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Kashima Antlers v Kashiwa Reysol
    Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 42%
    06:00
    Our probability, home win: 42 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 25 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 33 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka
    Likeliest: Avispa Fukuoka win · 44%
    06:00
    Our probability, home win: 24 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 32 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 44 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Gamba Osaka v Kyoto Sanga FC
    Likeliest: Gamba Osaka win · 51%
    07:00
    Our probability, home win: 51 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 24 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 25 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Nagoya Grampus v Yokohama F. Marinos
    Likeliest: Nagoya Grampus win · 37%
    05:00
    Our probability, home win: 37 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 27 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 36 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba
    Likeliest: Cerezo Osaka win · 59%
    06:00
    Our probability, home win: 59 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 22 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 19 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Urawa Red Diamonds v V-Varen Nagasaki
    Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 50%
    06:00
    Our probability, home win: 50 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 23 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 27 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    FC Tokyo v Mito Hollyhock
    Likeliest: FC Tokyo win · 68%
    07:00
    Our probability, home win: 68 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 19 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 13 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —
    Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama
    Likeliest: Kawasaki Frontale win · 50%
    07:00
    Our probability, home win: 50 percent
    Market probability, home win: no number
    Our probability, draw: 25 percent
    Market probability, draw: no number
    Our probability, away win: 25 percent
    Market probability, away win: no number
    —

    Big number is ours, small is the market. The price is the best one we can point at; a dash means no partner covers it in your country.

    Recent J-League results

    Every match here was priced before kick-off and graded after it. Open one to see the number we published and how it did.

    Fixtures priced
    20
    Spots
    2
    Graded here
    84
    last 90 days
    Called right
    57%
    of 84

    “Called right” is the share of our graded calls in this league that came in over the last 90 days — a blunt measure, and a small sample in most leagues. The full record, scored properly →

    How the favourite fares in J-League
    Favourite won
    55%
    Drawn
    21%
    Underdog won
    24%

    The favourite is the side the bookmakers priced shorter. Last 12 months, 104 matches we priced.

    Table · 2026/27
    #TeamPGDPts
    1Sanfrecce Hiroshima10+1923
    2Machida Zelvia10+1523
    3FC Tokyo10+1323
    4Vissel Kobe10+822
    5Kashiwa Reysol10+521
    6Kashima Antlers10+519
    Full table →
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