Every match. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', graded in public. Purple is where we differ.
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: 47 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 29 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 68 percent
Market probability, home win: 66 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 26 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 45 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 24 percent
Market probability, home win: 28 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 48 percent
Market probability, away win: 46 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 37 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Independiente Santa Fe v Jaguares de Córdoba
Likeliest: Independiente Santa Fe win · 72% · Likely score: 2–0
01:20
Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 11 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 70 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 18 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 12 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 41 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 35 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 44 percent
Market probability, away win: 42 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 70 percent
Market probability, home win: 67 percent
Our probability, draw: 18 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 43 percent
Market probability, away win: 43 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 9 percent
Market probability, home win: 13 percent
Our probability, draw: 15 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 76 percent
Market probability, away win: 70 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 44 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 55 percent
Market probability, away win: 52 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 15 percent
Market probability, home win: 19 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 61 percent
Market probability, away win: 57 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 18 percent
Market probability, home win: 22 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 57 percent
Market probability, away win: 53 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 65 percent
Market probability, home win: 63 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 14 percent
Market probability, away win: 16 percent
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Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea Craiova
Likeliest: Universitatea Craiova win · 64% · Likely score: 0–1
16:45
Our probability, home win: 12 percent
Market probability, home win: 16 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 64 percent
Market probability, away win: 60 percent
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FK Jablonec v Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Brighton & Hove Albion win · 74% · Likely score: 0–1
16:45spot · away
Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 18 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 74 percent
Market probability, away win: 70 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 54 percent
Market probability, home win: 54 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 53 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 70 percent
Market probability, home win: 67 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 11 percent
Market probability, away win: 13 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 40 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 7 percent
Market probability, home win: 11 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 76 percent
Market probability, away win: 70 percent
—
FC Midtjylland v Sint-Truidense VV
Likeliest: FC Midtjylland win · 61% · Likely score: 2–1
19:00spot · home
Our probability, home win: 61 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 54 percent
Market probability, home win: 53 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 31 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 43 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 46 percent
Market probability, home win: 46 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 26 percent
Market probability, away win: 27 percent
—
OFI Crete v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 80% · Likely score: 0–1
16:45spot · away
Our probability, home win: 6 percent
Market probability, home win: 9 percent
Our probability, draw: 14 percent
Market probability, draw: 15 percent
Our probability, away win: 80 percent
Market probability, away win: 76 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 62 percent
Market probability, away win: 58 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 11 percent
Market probability, away win: 12 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Likeliest: Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win · 72% · Likely score: 2–1
16:45spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 72 percent
Market probability, home win: 69 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 13 percent
Market probability, away win: 14 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 11 percent
Market probability, home win: 16 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 68 percent
Market probability, away win: 64 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 14 percent
Market probability, home win: 18 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 66 percent
Market probability, away win: 61 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 8 percent
Market probability, home win: 12 percent
Our probability, draw: 19 percent
Market probability, draw: 19 percent
Our probability, away win: 73 percent
Market probability, away win: 69 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 43 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 57 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 19 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 19 percent
Market probability, home win: 23 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 56 percent
Market probability, away win: 52 percent
—
Olympiacos FC v AC Sparta Praha
Likeliest: Olympiacos FC win · 61% · Likely score: 2–1
19:00spot · btts
Our probability, home win: 61 percent
Market probability, home win: 60 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 25 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 28 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 32 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 43 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
CD Riestra Reserve v Central Cordoba Reserve
Likeliest: CD Riestra Reserve win · 74% · Likely score: 2–0
18:00
Our probability, home win: 74 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
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Atlético Tucumán Reserve v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve
Likeliest: draw · 36% · Likely score: 0–0
18:00
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 36 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 39 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
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Godoy Cruz Reserve v Instituto AC Cordoba Reserves
Likeliest: Godoy Cruz Reserve win · 48% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
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Unión Santa Fe Reserve v Barracas Central Reserve
Likeliest: Unión Santa Fe Reserve win · 65% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00
Our probability, home win: 65 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 11 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
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Big number is ours, small is the market — bookmakers' prices with the margin removed. Purple is a gap of 4 points or more, and a purple edge marks a spot: an outcome we are longer on than the market, in any of the markets we publish. The price is the best one in our data for that outcome; it links to a partner in your country. Switch to Goals for over/under 2.5 and both teams to score.
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