Every match. The honest number.
Our probability next to the bookmakers', graded in public. Purple is where we differ.
Our probability, home win: 96 percent
Market probability, home win: 94 percent
Our probability, draw: 3 percent
Market probability, draw: 4 percent
Our probability, away win: 1 percent
Market probability, away win: 2 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 35 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 39 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 24 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
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Montevideo City Torque v Atlético Mineiro
Likeliest: Atlético Mineiro win · 39% · Likely score: 0–1
22:00
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 35 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 58 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 30 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 34 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
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Montedio Yamagata v Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
Likeliest: Montedio Yamagata win · 40% · Likely score: 1–0
04:00
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
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Tokushima Vortis v Vanraure Hachinohe
Likeliest: Tokushima Vortis win · 49% · Likely score: 2–1
10:00spot · over 2.5
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 23 percent
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Tegevajaro Miyazaki v Blaublitz Akita
Likeliest: Tegevajaro Miyazaki win · 44% · Likely score: 2–1
10:00spot · over 2.5
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 45 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 25 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: 28 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 33 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 39 percent
Market probability, away win: 38 percent
—
RB Omiya Ardija v Kataller Toyama
Likeliest: RB Omiya Ardija win · 40% · Likely score: 1–0
10:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 42 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
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Jubilo Iwata v Oita Trinita
Likeliest: Jubilo Iwata win · 50% · Likely score: 2–1
10:00spot · over 2.5
Our probability, home win: 50 percent
Market probability, home win: 51 percent
Our probability, draw: 30 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 44 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Ventforet Kofu v Yokohama FC
Likeliest: Yokohama FC win · 56% · Likely score: 0–1
10:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 17 percent
Market probability, home win: 21 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 56 percent
Market probability, away win: 52 percent
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Vegalta Sendai v FC Imabari
Likeliest: Vegalta Sendai win · 64% · Likely score: 2–0
10:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 61 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 17 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 49 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
V-Varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Likeliest: Sanfrecce Hiroshima win · 71% · Likely score: 0–2
10:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 9 percent
Market probability, home win: 14 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 20 percent
Our probability, away win: 71 percent
Market probability, away win: 66 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 20 percent
Market probability, home win: 24 percent
Our probability, draw: 27 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 53 percent
Market probability, away win: 50 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 22 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 47 percent
Market probability, away win: 45 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 40 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 35 percent
Our probability, draw: 28 percent
Market probability, draw: 26 percent
Our probability, away win: 41 percent
Market probability, away win: 39 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 48 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
—
Kawasaki Frontale v Vissel Kobe
Likeliest: Vissel Kobe win · 37% · Likely score: 0–1
10:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 34 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 37 percent
Market probability, away win: 36 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 38 percent
Market probability, home win: 40 percent
Our probability, draw: 29 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 33 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
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Urawa Red Diamonds v JEF United Chiba
Likeliest: Urawa Red Diamonds win · 58% · Likely score: 2–1
10:30
Our probability, home win: 58 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 20 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 27 percent
Market probability, home win: no number
Our probability, draw: 18 percent
Market probability, draw: no number
Our probability, away win: 56 percent
Market probability, away win: no number
—
Our probability, home win: 33 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 31 percent
Our probability, away win: 36 percent
Market probability, away win: 35 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 40 percent
Market probability, home win: 41 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 34 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 79 percent
Market probability, home win: 76 percent
Our probability, draw: 16 percent
Market probability, draw: 17 percent
Our probability, away win: 5 percent
Market probability, away win: 7 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 47 percent
Market probability, home win: 46 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 24 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 30 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 78 percent
Market probability, home win: 74 percent
Our probability, draw: 14 percent
Market probability, draw: 15 percent
Our probability, away win: 9 percent
Market probability, away win: 11 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 64 percent
Market probability, home win: 62 percent
Our probability, draw: 20 percent
Market probability, draw: 21 percent
Our probability, away win: 16 percent
Market probability, away win: 18 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 31 percent
Market probability, away win: 31 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 82 percent
Market probability, home win: 78 percent
Our probability, draw: 12 percent
Market probability, draw: 14 percent
Our probability, away win: 6 percent
Market probability, away win: 8 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 60 percent
Market probability, home win: 57 percent
Our probability, draw: 21 percent
Market probability, draw: 22 percent
Our probability, away win: 20 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 43 percent
Market probability, home win: 44 percent
Our probability, draw: 36 percent
Market probability, draw: 33 percent
Our probability, away win: 21 percent
Market probability, away win: 22 percent
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Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve v Talleres de Córdoba Reserve
Likeliest: Gimnasia y Esgrima Reserve win · 42% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 38 percent
Our probability, draw: 35 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
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Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve v Colón Reserve
Likeliest: Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve win · 42% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 46 percent
Our probability, draw: 32 percent
Market probability, draw: 28 percent
Our probability, away win: 27 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
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Belgrano Reserve v Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve
Likeliest: Belgrano Reserve win · 42% · Likely score: 2–1
18:00spot · home
Our probability, home win: 42 percent
Market probability, home win: 37 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 30 percent
Our probability, away win: 32 percent
Market probability, away win: 33 percent
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Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve v San Martin Reserve
Likeliest: Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve win · 51% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 51 percent
Market probability, home win: 56 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 21 percent
—
Lanús Reserve v Quilmes Reserve
Likeliest: Lanús Reserve win · 61% · Likely score: 1–0
18:00spot · home
Our probability, home win: 61 percent
Market probability, home win: 48 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 27 percent
Our probability, away win: 15 percent
Market probability, away win: 25 percent
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River Plate Reserve v Vélez Sarsfield Reserve
Likeliest: River Plate Reserve win · 36% · Likely score: 1–0
22:00spot · under 2.5
Our probability, home win: 36 percent
Market probability, home win: 39 percent
Our probability, draw: 34 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 30 percent
Market probability, away win: 32 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 23 percent
Market probability, home win: 26 percent
Our probability, draw: 31 percent
Market probability, draw: 29 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 59 percent
Market probability, home win: 57 percent
Our probability, draw: 24 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 18 percent
Market probability, away win: 19 percent
—
SC Jacksonville v Louisville City FC
Likeliest: Louisville City FC win · 73% · Likely score: 1–2
21:00spot · away
Our probability, home win: 11 percent
Market probability, home win: 15 percent
Our probability, draw: 17 percent
Market probability, draw: 18 percent
Our probability, away win: 73 percent
Market probability, away win: 67 percent
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Brooklyn FC v Birmingham Legion FC
Likeliest: Birmingham Legion FC win · 42% · Likely score: 1–2
22:30
Our probability, home win: 32 percent
Market probability, home win: 34 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 42 percent
Market probability, away win: 41 percent
—
Sarasota Paradise v FC Naples
Likeliest: Sarasota Paradise win · 56% · Likely score: 2–1
22:30spot · home
Our probability, home win: 56 percent
Market probability, home win: 49 percent
Our probability, draw: 22 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 22 percent
Market probability, away win: 26 percent
—
New York Cosmos v Spokane Velocity FC
Likeliest: Spokane Velocity FC win · 46% · Likely score: 1–2
23:00
Our probability, home win: 29 percent
Market probability, home win: 30 percent
Our probability, draw: 26 percent
Market probability, draw: 25 percent
Our probability, away win: 46 percent
Market probability, away win: 44 percent
—
Our probability, home win: 54 percent
Market probability, home win: 53 percent
Our probability, draw: 23 percent
Market probability, draw: 23 percent
Our probability, away win: 23 percent
Market probability, away win: 24 percent
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Big number is ours, small is the market — bookmakers' prices with the margin removed. Purple is a gap of 4 points or more, and a purple edge marks a spot: an outcome we are longer on than the market, in any of the markets we publish. The price is the best one in our data for that outcome; it links to a partner in your country. Switch to Goals for over/under 2.5 and both teams to score.
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